Oliynykova vs Plíšková — a rising Ukrainian against a rebuilt former No. 1
Preview · National Bank Open, Toronto (WTA 1000) · First round · 3 August 2026
Two comeback stories collide on the Toronto hard courts, though they are travelling in opposite directions. Oleksandra Oliynykova has spent 2026 climbing steadily towards the best ranking of her life. Karolína Plíšková has spent it climbing back from somewhere close to the bottom of the sport. They have never played each other, and the winner walks into a second round against the fifth seed, Mirra Andreeva.
The matchup
Oliynykova, now 25, competes for Ukraine, having switched from Croatia — where her family settled when she was a child — in 2022. She has been one of the season’s genuine risers: a first WTA semi-final in Cluj-Napoca in February, where she beat Wang Xinyu for her first top-50 win before Emma Raducanu stopped her; a third round at the Italian Open; a third round at Roland Garros. Her ranking has moved from outside the top 90 at the start of the year to a career high in the mid-40s, and she is a natural competitor — a heavy, dogged baseliner whose best surface remains clay but whose confidence is currently surface-agnostic.
Plíšková’s story is starker. The former world No. 1, a US Open and Wimbledon finalist with 17 tour titles, ruptured every ligament and both tendons in her left ankle at the 2024 US Open, needed a second operation six months later to clear an infection, and had to relearn how to walk. She missed all of 2025 and began this season ranked beyond 1,000. Since returning at the Australian Open she has reached quarter-finals in Linz, Madrid and Queen’s, won a round at Wimbledon before Iga Świątek beat her comfortably in the second, and is back inside the top 70.
Form & conditions
This is the awkward part for the Czech. At 34 and with an ankle that has been rebuilt from scratch, movement was always her weakest link and is not going to improve now. Her weapons — a serve that once produced more aces in a season than anyone in WTA history, and flat, punishing groundstrokes — remain intact.
The weather is the sub-plot. Toronto has been cold, wet and extremely humid since play began, with Sunday’s night session washed away entirely. Heavy air deadens the ball, drags first serves back into play and extends rallies. That is close to the worst possible cocktail for a big server with limited lateral range, and close to the best for a retriever who enjoys long exchanges.
The deciding factor
Court time per point. If Plíšková is holding serve cheaply and dictating from two or three shots in, she wins comfortably; her ball is simply better than anything Oliynykova will produce. If the Ukrainian gets returns back and makes her opponent change direction repeatedly, the physical bill arrives quickly.
The call
Lean Oliynykova, with medium confidence. Respect the pedigree and the serve, but the conditions, the mobility question and the Ukrainian’s upward curve all tilt this away from the more famous name.
