Sabalenka vs Uchijima — the world No. 1 opens with more than a match to protect

Preview · National Bank Open, Toronto (WTA 1000) · Second round · 4 August 2026

There is a number hanging over Aryna Sabalenka’s fortnight in Toronto, and it is not her opponent’s ranking. The top spot she has occupied is genuinely in play here: should she fail to reach the last 16, Elena Rybakina can take it from her by winning the title. That turns what would ordinarily be a routine opener against Moyuka Uchijima into a match with a consequence attached, and Sabalenka has never been a player who hides from that framing.

The matchup

Sabalenka has been close to untouchable on hard courts this year, losing just once in more than twenty matches on the surface — to Rybakina, in the Australian Open final. Everything else has gone her way: the serve, the flat backhand down the line, the sheer weight of ball that leaves opponents defending from three metres behind the baseline by the third game. This is her surface and this is her time of year.

Uchijima, 24 and Japanese, came through qualifying to reach the main draw and is ranked outside the top 100, some way below the career high of No. 47 she reached after a genuine breakthrough at WTA 1000 level in Madrid last season, where she beat Jessica Pegula for her first top-ten win. She has collected two WTA 125 titles this year, so she is winning matches; the question is whether that currency converts at this altitude.

They have met once, at Roland Garros in 2024, where Sabalenka won 6-2 6-2 in an hour. They have never faced each other on a hard court, which is the surface that widens rather than narrows the gap between them.

Form & conditions

Sabalenka has not played since Wimbledon, where Naomi Osaka beat her in the fourth round, and she took a short break afterwards that she has since described as necessary. She also exited Roland Garros in the quarter-finals, so the grass and clay portions of her year fell short of the standard she set on hard courts either side of them. Canada, notably, has never been a happy hunting ground: she has not gone beyond the semi-finals at this event, in either of its host cities.

Uchijima, by contrast, is deep into her tournament rhythm, having played qualifying and then dispatched Cristina Bucșa 6-3 6-4 in the first round. She will be the fresher competitor in the sense that matters least and the more fatigued one in the sense that might matter later in the week.

The deciding factor

The serve, in both directions. Sabalenka’s delivery in these conditions removes the possibility of Uchijima building a return pattern, and it keeps the Belarusian out of trouble on the rare occasions her groundstrokes misfire. Uchijima’s route to competitiveness runs through extending rallies and inviting errors, but that plan requires holding serve comfortably enough to stay in touch — and against this returner, at this ranking gap, that is a heavy ask.

The call

Sabalenka, with high confidence. Rustiness could cost her a scrappy opening service game; it is unlikely to cost her more.