Hajduk Split vs Pafos — two goals of comfort, and a Limassol night to survive
Preview · UEFA Europa League · Second qualifying round, second leg · 30 July 2026
Hajduk Split have been here before, and rarely with a happy ending. A 2-0 win at Poljud last Thursday leaves them ninety minutes from a third qualifying round they have not reached in a generation. Standing in the way is a Pafos side who spent last autumn in the Champions League league phase and who, on their own patch, have a European record that ought to make Croatian nerves jangle.
The matchup
The first leg was decided in a nine-minute burst midway through the second half. Michele Šego opened the scoring on fifty-six minutes with a free kick that struck the crossbar and dropped in, and Dario Melnjak headed a second on sixty-five. Two goals, one short spell, and a tie tilted decisively.
The second leg is not in Paphos. Pafos play their European football at the Alphamega Stadium in Limassol, a venue that has become something close to a fortress — they have lost only three of sixteen European home matches there, a run that includes beating Villarreal 1-0 and drawing 2-2 with Monaco during last season’s Champions League campaign. That is not a record built on flukes, and it is the single strongest argument against writing this tie off.
Form & context
Pafos come in wobbling, though. They have lost their last three outings, failed to keep a clean sheet in each of them, and their pre-season offered little reassurance before the first leg exposed them. Ricardo Sá Pinto is without Anderson Silva and João Correia through injury and may shift to a back four; David Luiz is expected to anchor whatever shape he picks. Having won the Cypriot title in 2024-25 but surrendered it since, this is a club still recalibrating after a heady European year.
Hajduk arrive in better nick — four wins in their last five — but with a caveat that has haunted them for over a decade. Their away form in competitive fixtures has been poor, and they have not come through a European qualifying campaign since reaching the 2010-11 Europa League group stage, a fifteen-season drought that has produced a good deal of scar tissue. Roko Brajković is a long-term absentee with a cruciate injury, with Abdoulie Sanyang Bamba the likely replacement on the right.
The deciding factor
Whether Hajduk can resist the temptation to defend the whole thing. Two goals is a substantial cushion but not an insurmountable one, and a side with their qualifying history is exactly the type to invite pressure and then buckle to it. Pafos need an early goal to make the Alphamega crowd believe; if the first half passes goalless, the tie effectively ends. Conversely, Hajduk have scored in each of their last eight matches, and one away goal would kill it outright.
The call
Leaning Hajduk Split to go through, with medium confidence. Two goals plus a functioning attack is a lot to overturn for a Pafos team short of both form and personnel. A 1-1 draw feels the likeliest shape — Pafos threatening, Hajduk landing enough of a counterpunch. A Pafos win on the night would surprise nobody; a three-goal swing would.
