Świątek vs Kostyuk — the rematch Paris arranged

Preview · National Bank Open · Round of 16 · Saturday 8 August 2026

Ten weeks ago Marta Kostyuk beat Iga Świątek for the first time, and did it in the fourth round of Roland-Garros, on the surface that made the Pole's name. They meet again at 12:30 on Centre Court, this time on outdoor hard, with both women playing about as well as they have all week.

The matchup

Świątek is the No. 7 seed here and ranked eighth; Kostyuk is seeded 10 and ranked 11. That gap is far narrower than the reputations suggest. Świątek leads the head-to-head 3-1, but only one of those meetings was a completed hard-court match: a 6-2, 6-2 win in Cincinnati in 2024. They were drawn together in Cincinnati again last year and the match never happened, Kostyuk withdrawing beforehand. Kostyuk's reply came in Paris on 31 May, 7-5, 6-1, ending Świątek's tournament in the round of 16.

The pattern matters. In Cincinnati Świątek took Kostyuk's ball early and rushed her; in Paris the extra fraction of a second let Kostyuk step in on the backhand and dictate. Toronto's courts sit somewhere between the two.

Form & hard courts

Świątek has been ruthless in Canada so far. She dropped three games against Sara Bejlek, 6-0, 6-3, and three more against Viktorija Golubić, 6-2, 6-1, in a third round that lasted a little over an hour. Six games conceded across four sets is the best set of numbers on this half of the draw. Her wider summer was less convincing: a second-round loss to Emma Navarro in Bad Homburg and a third-round exit to Alexandra Eala at Wimbledon.

Kostyuk's year has been the bigger one. She reached the semi-finals at Roland-Garros and again at Wimbledon, and she has carried that into Toronto with a 7-6(4), 6-0 win over the wild card Katherine Sebov and a 6-3, 6-1 dismissal of the No. 19 seed Madison Keys — her first win over Keys after two previous defeats. She was a quarter-finalist at this event a year ago in Montréal.

On surface-adjusted numbers Świątek holds a modest edge on hard courts, sitting a few places above Kostyuk in hard-court Elo, while their all-surface ratings are close enough to be indistinguishable. That is the honest picture: a coin weighted slightly, not a mismatch.

The deciding factor

Court time. Neither has been extended — both are through in straight sets twice, and neither carries a physical excuse into Saturday lunchtime. With fatigue neutral, it comes down to who imposes first. Świątek has been serving and returning at a level Kostyuk has not had to face this week; Kostyuk has beaten a genuine hard-court hitter in Keys, which Świątek has not.

Świątek has still never won this title, her best run being the 2023 semi-finals, and she lost in the last 16 in Montréal a year ago. She has no aura to lean on here.

The call

Świątek, on the hard-court numbers, the one clean win in this head-to-head on this surface, and the cleanest week of tennis in the top half. But Kostyuk has already proved she can win this fixture, and a first-strike day from the Ukrainian flips it. Lean Świątek, low confidence.