Rybakina vs Li — a wobbling No. 2 still holds every weapon
Preview · National Bank Open · Round of 32 · Friday 7 August 2026
Elena Rybakina opened her Toronto campaign with the untidiest good result of her season, and now meets an American whose year has been a long search for consistency. Rybakina is the second seed and world No. 2; Ann Li is seeded 28 and ranked 31. The margin between them is enormous — but the second seed spent 2 hours 33 minutes getting through her first match, so the door is not quite shut.
The matchup
Rybakina is the Australian Open champion this year and added Stuttgart on clay, and she carries a 2026 record of roughly 35-11. Her method is not subtle and does not need to be: one of the biggest serves in the women's game, flat depth off both wings, and very little that a returner can safely attack. Li, 26, reached a career high of 29 in May and has two tour titles to her name. She is a clean, compact hard-court player who takes the ball early, but her season sits at roughly 17-19, and she came into this week off a first-round loss in Washington.
Form & hard courts
Hard-court Elo puts Rybakina second in the world at around 2,105; Li sits near 1,720, outside the top 70. That is close to a 380-point chasm, which is about as one-sided as this round produces, and it does not depend on ranking or seeding to make the point. Li's route here has been solid rather than convincing — a 7-6(2), 6-3 win over Canadian wildcard Kayla Cross in 1 hour 27 minutes — and her most recent hard-court result of note was a heavy loss to Alina Korneeva in Athens. Rybakina, meanwhile, beat Daria Kasatkina 6-3, 5-7, 6-4 in a match she described afterwards as short of her best.
The deciding factor
Rybakina's serve, and whether it settles. Against Kasatkina she hit 15 aces and 16 double faults, and finished with 58 winners against 58 unforced errors — the numbers of a player returning to competition after a month away, which is exactly what she was, Toronto being her first tour-level event since a third-round exit at Wimbledon. Li is not built to bully that kind of opponent; she needs Rybakina to keep handing over free points and to keep the rallies long enough to expose the timing. A day off and a second match on site usually cure that sort of rust, and if the double faults halve there is simply no route for Li. If they do not, this becomes a scrappy two-and-a-half-hour night.
The call
The rust is real and worth a set, but the gulf in surface-specific quality is far too wide for a player having a losing season to bridge. Rybakina should serve better than she did on Wednesday, and even at 80 per cent she out-hits Li from every position on the court. Lean Rybakina, medium-high confidence.
