Musetti vs Jodar — the rematch, six days on
Preview · National Bank Open · Round of 32 · Thursday 6 August 2026
Centre Court, not before 19:00 local time, and these two walk out having played each other last Friday. Rafael Jodar beat Lorenzo Musetti in the Washington quarter-finals on 31 July and went on to reach the final there. On paper the Italian is the higher seed; almost nothing else supports that hierarchy.
The matchup
Musetti is seeded 11th, Jodar 20th, and those numbers are a lagging indicator. The 19-year-old Spaniard leads the head-to-head 1-0 after that 1-6, 6-1, 6-4 win in Washington, a match in which he was blown off the court for a set and then took the thing over completely. Three days later he was in the final, losing to Taylor Fritz. Musetti, by contrast, is barely a fortnight into a comeback. He missed both Roland Garros and Wimbledon through injury and returned in Washington, where an early retirement from Matteo Arnaldi eased his first match before he beat Aleksandar Vukic and ran into Jodar. Four matches since Rome is not much of a base for a Masters 1000 week.
Form & hard courts
Both won on Wednesday, but not equally. Musetti edged qualifier Nicolas Mejia 7-6, 6-2 in two sets; Jodar needed three to see off Corentin Moutet, 4-6, 6-1, 6-3, after dropping the opener. That is the one solid argument for the Italian — Jodar played a tour final on Monday, a three-setter on Wednesday, and the legs of a teenager in his first full season at this level are not limitless. Set against it, the hard-court numbers are emphatic. Jodar's rating on the surface sits inside the top dozen on tour and comfortably clear of Musetti's, which sits around the low thirties. That is a striking inversion for a player seeded nine places lower, and it fits what the eye says: Musetti's game, all touch and one-handed variety, has always travelled less cleanly to fast outdoor hard courts than to clay.
The deciding factor
Match sharpness. Musetti has played four matches since May; Jodar has scarcely stopped since Washington began, and has won all but one of them. A layoff of that length does not evaporate in two weeks, and the specific shape of the Washington meeting matters — Musetti started superbly, then faded physically and tactically once Jodar began taking the ball early and dragging him wide. Nothing in the Mejia win suggested the Italian has found another gear since.
The call
The higher seed is the less convincing player right now. Jodar has the recent head-to-head win, the better surface rating, a title-match run behind him and a fortnight of momentum; Musetti has rest and class but very little evidence. Accumulated fatigue is a genuine risk for the Spaniard and it stops this being a firm position, yet the direction of travel is not in doubt. Lean Jodar, medium-high confidence.
