Anisimova vs Bartunkova — rust against rhythm
Preview · National Bank Open · Round of 32 · Thursday 6 August 2026
Some seeds reach the third round having earned it. Amanda Anisimova reaches it having barely touched a ball. The eighth seed received a first-round bye and then advanced when her second-round opponent withdrew, meaning she walks out for her Round of 32 tie without a single competitive game in Toronto. Waiting for her is Nikola Bartunkova, who has already beaten a home favourite and a seed this week.
The matchup
The two have never met. Anisimova, ranked inside the world's top ten and seeded eighth, owns one of the cleanest ball-strikes on tour, and her hard-court rating still outstrips the Czech's — but only by around sixty points, with Anisimova around fortieth on that measure and Bartunkova around seventy-fifth. It is a real edge, and it is nothing like the chasm the seedings imply.
One point worth clearing up: Bartunkova did not come through qualifying. She entered the main draw directly on her ranking, which sits in the low forties, at or around her career high. That matters, because it frames her run here as a continuation of a season's progress rather than a qualifier's lucky week. She has already beaten Canadian wildcard Bianca Andreescu 7-5, 6-4 and then upset 27th seed Clara Tauson 6-3, 6-4, both in straight sets and both without any obvious sign of nerves.
Form & hard courts
Anisimova's recent record is respectable rather than commanding. She reached the third round at Wimbledon before losing to Madison Keys, having survived a tight three-setter against Sofia Kenin the round before, and she was beaten by Iva Jovic in the quarter-finals on grass in London. There is nothing wrong with that body of work, but it does not describe a player in irresistible touch.
Bartunkova's 2026 has been the more eye-catching arc. She qualified for the Australian Open, won her first major match and then claimed a first top-ten scalp before falling in the third round. She reached the last sixteen in Rome as a lucky loser, and made a WTA 125 final on grass in Birmingham. This is a player whose results have been outrunning her ranking all year.
The deciding factor
This is the classic trap. A bye followed by a walkover leaves Anisimova with zero minutes on a Toronto court, no read on the conditions, no sense of how the ball is flying here, and no chance to work out the timing issues that always surface in a first match. Bartunkova has two completed wins, has already solved the courts, and is playing with the freedom of someone who has beaten a seed and expects nothing.
Against that, Anisimova's ceiling is simply higher. If she finds her range inside four or five games, the Czech will struggle to hold serve against that return.
The call
The hard-court numbers still favour the seed and there is enough quality in Anisimova's hitting to settle this in straight sets if she starts cleanly. But a completely cold seed against an opponent in rhythm is exactly the scenario that produces upsets, and Bartunkova has the game and the confidence to punish a slow opening. Lean Anisimova, low confidence.
